The path from renting to owning a home has grown sharply longer: A median-income U.S. renter household would need 16 years to save for a starter-home down payment and closing costs, according to an analysis released Thursday by the Julian Bond Institute, part of the Center for Responsible Lending. That is double the time estimated in the organization’s 2019 calculation. For a median-income Black renter household, the estimate rises to 21 years. Among households earning roughly $50,000 to $120,000, the projected savings period is 12 years. Police officers, firefighters, emergency medical technicians, nurses and teachers face estimates of 10 to 13 years. The analysis uses a starter-home price of $335,574—80% of the median sale price of existing homes—and assumes a 3.5% down payment, the minimum required by the Federal Housing Administration for many first-time buyers. It also counts closing costs. The institute’s figures may understate the challenge: The typical first-time buyer puts down about 10%, and the calculation assumes households can consistently save despite expenses that leave many with little or nothing to set aside. Home prices, inflation and higher costs for essentials such as food, gas and health care have strained budgets since 2019, the report says. Closing costs have also risen, in part because homeowners insurance has become more expensive. Mortgage rates have topped 7%, adding another obstacle for buyers. The wait varies widely by location. The analysis estimates 11 years to save in Houston and 24 years in Los Angeles. For families, a 16-year savings target can mean children may have left home for college or work before their parents have saved enough to buy. Rents have further narrowed the room to save. A recent Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies report found that from 2001 to 2024, renter incomes rose 9% after inflation while rents climbed 30%. A quarter of renters now spend more than half their income on rent and utilities, according to that research. The divide also reflects a housing market that has rewarded many existing owners while shutting out prospective buyers. Homeowners who bought before prices surged built substantial equity, and some refinanced when mortgage rates fell to around 2% or 3%. Many are reluctant to sell and take on a much larger payment, limiting the number of homes coming onto the market and intensifying the shortage. Mike Calhoun, president of the Center for Responsible Lending, said younger buyers often rely on financial help from parents or friends to assemble a down payment. Assistance programs exist, but Calhoun said many are small and can run out of money. The report calls for measures to expand the supply of lower-cost homes, including duplexes, townhomes and manufactured housing, as well as zoning changes. A housing law passed by Congress this year seeks to encourage more construction, but states and local governments will need to act, and new supply takes time to build. Despite the barriers, a related survey by the institute found that millennials and Gen Zers aspire to homeownership at rates similar to earlier generations. Homeownership remains a major way families build wealth, said report co-author David Silberman, even as the savings hurdle grows steeper.