EUGENE, Ore. — The Trump administration’s expected repeal of the Roadless Rule could open millions of acres of national forest to new roads and logging, but timber businesses in Oregon say the policy change alone won’t reverse decades of industry decline. The rule, in place since 2001, generally restricts new road construction and logging on about 44 million acres of national forest. The administration says lifting those limits would give the U.S. Forest Service more flexibility to thin forests, reduce wildfire risks and increase timber sales. Formal repeal is expected early next year. For Sean Smith, chief executive of family-owned Starfire Lumber in Cottage Grove, the prospect of a steadier local timber supply is welcome. But operating costs are pressing harder on the business today. Diesel prices are at record highs, he said, while inflation has raised the cost of equipment and replacement parts, including saw blades and bearings. “Steel, you know, we have to buy sawblades, we have to buy ball bearings,” Smith said. “We have to buy a million different parts to keep this mouse trap going.” Smith said he supports reversing the rule partly because some forests near his mill are dangerously overgrown and vulnerable to severe fires. “This is a guy who lives here and is tired of seeing these beautiful places burn up,” he said. But a policy shift won’t quickly restore the workforce and infrastructure needed to expand logging. Jeff Brink, a second-generation logger near Eugene whose family business began in 1981, said it is increasingly difficult to recruit drivers for demanding log-truck jobs when workers can earn similar pay elsewhere. Brink’s company has stayed afloat with restoration work on private land and salvage logging in areas burned by wildfires. For smaller operators, however, high fuel prices and labor shortages could threaten already thin margins, he said. Federal timber sales have fallen nearly 90% since the 1990s, according to the figures cited by industry representatives, amid tighter environmental laws and market competition that includes lower-cost Canadian lumber. Across the broader Northwest, an estimated 400 mills have closed since that decade, eliminating about 35,000 jobs. Seven Oregon mills have shut down since 2024. Industry projections suggest repealing the rule may increase federal timber sales by 5% to 10%—a modest boost in a region where mills and logging capacity have steadily disappeared. Brink said mills outside the Interstate 5 corridor and major population centers are particularly vulnerable because they have fewer nearby sources of timber. The proposal also faces legal and political hurdles. Environmental groups have signaled they plan to sue after the repeal is finalized. And timber policy has repeatedly shifted between presidential administrations since Congress never made the Roadless Rule law, leaving businesses uncertain about long-term access to federal forests. Timothy Ingalsbee, a retired Forest Service firefighter and longtime opponent of logging in roadless areas, disputes the administration’s wildfire-prevention rationale. He warns that adding roads could increase human-caused fires and says the policy risks reigniting conflicts from the region’s 1990s “Timber Wars.” The debate leaves rural communities facing a difficult calculation: expanded access could help supply mills and fund forest work, but it cannot by itself bring back closed facilities, recruit loggers or make fuel and equipment cheaper. Smith said the repeated swings in federal policy make it harder to plan and keep a business running.