Grocery prices are moving in different directions: ground beef and coffee remain far more expensive than they were two years ago, while butter has become cheaper and egg prices have retreated from record highs. The uneven shifts reflect supply problems and changing costs for individual products, even as grocery prices overall continue to rise more slowly than during the inflation surge of 2022. Food prices jumped 11.4% that year, amid strong demand, avian flu and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The increases have since cooled, but prices have generally not returned to pre-surge levels. “Any inflation that happens now in the grocery store is on top of these already very high prices,” said Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. Beef remains one of the biggest pressure points. A pound of ground beef cost an average $6.79 last month, up 85% from a decade earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Drought has damaged cattle herds, while higher costs for fuel and farm equipment, limited grazing land and a shrinking number of cattle farms have squeezed producers. The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years. Eggs show how quickly prices can swing when supply is hit. Avian flu outbreaks have forced farms to cull infected flocks, reducing the number of laying hens. A dozen eggs averaged a record $6.23 in March 2025, then fell to $2.27 last month. Packaging costs, including cardboard affected by tariffs, have added another expense for producers. Coffee drinkers face a different mix of pressures. The United States imports more than 99% of the coffee it consumes, making the product sensitive to trade policy and conditions abroad. Tariffs on countries including Brazil—responsible for about 35% of global coffee supply—were later removed for coffee, but prices last month remained 44% above their level two years earlier. Drought and heavy rain in major producing countries have hurt harvests and raised the risk of crop disease. Butter is the exception. It averaged $3.96 per pound in September, down 17.3% from a year earlier. Dairy producers have expanded herds and milk output, partly to supply milk proteins used in popular products such as Greek yogurt and cottage cheese. That growth has left more butter available, helping push down prices even as demand remains strong. Chocolate chip cookies hit a record $5.35 per pound in January, before becoming 20 cents cheaper last month. Their cost reflects the price of several ingredients: flour was affected by the war in Ukraine, cocoa has reached repeated highs, and egg prices have followed avian-flu outbreaks. Labor and insurance costs also weigh on bakeries. Keegan Rodgers, founder and pastry chef at Lakehouse Bakery in Chelsea, Michigan, said switching to lower-cost ingredients such as margarine could cut his costs by about 30%. He has instead raised prices to keep using higher-quality ingredients and employing skilled bakers. For shoppers, the mixed picture is a reminder that a lower inflation rate does not necessarily mean a lower grocery bill. A price decline in one aisle can coexist with stubbornly expensive staples—and the next swing may depend on weather, disease, trade costs or how much food producers can bring to market.