Democrats hold an 8-point lead among likely voters in the race for Congress, but a new national poll points to turnout and voter skepticism as potential limits on how far that advantage will carry them in the 2026 midterms. The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, conducted Oct. 19-20, found President Donald Trump’s job approval at 40% among likely voters, with 59% disapproving. On the generic congressional ballot, likely voters favored a Democratic candidate in their district by 8 points. The margin was 10 points among registered voters. The poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters. Democratic voters were more enthusiastic about voting: 71% said they were very enthusiastic, compared with 61% of Republicans. But enthusiasm was lower among several groups Democrats rely on, including voters under 45 (42%), nonwhite voters (53%) and white women with college degrees (56%). By comparison, 68% of MAGA supporters said they were very enthusiastic. Republicans have also narrowed the gap in attention to the election. Among likely voters, 51% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans said they were following it very closely. The findings offer a reminder that disapproval of the president does not automatically translate into votes for the opposition. One independent respondent who backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 said opposition to democratic socialism was shaping his support for the Republican Senate candidate in North Carolina. Pocketbook concerns topped the list of issues. A third of respondents said they had faced financial hardship in the past year, while 38% said their personal finances had worsened. Forty-four percent said their finances had stayed about the same. One Arizona independent described high food and gas prices as a strain, saying they were too expensive regardless of how people voted. The poll also found that 55% of likely voters considered it more important to elect candidates with new ideas who would bring change. Asked whether their vote would be for or against Trump, 44% said it would be against him and 21% said it would be for him. Trump is not on the ballot, but has urged voters to imagine that he is. Democrats face structural hurdles despite their ballot lead. The survey notes that redistricting—including mid-decade map changes in some states—has tilted congressional seats toward Republicans. In the poll, 98% of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for a Democrat, but only 81% thought the Democratic candidate would win. Voters also expressed resistance to new data centers near home: 66% opposed construction in their community, including 41% who strongly opposed it. On immigration, 61% said immigrants should have a path to remain legally if they meet certain requirements, while two-thirds of Republicans said they should be required to leave. The poll found three-quarters of likely voters were confident state and local governments would run a fair and accurate election. Republicans were less confident than Democrats, and one-quarter said their preferred candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results. The numbers give Democrats a clear opening, but the party’s advantage will depend on whether less-enthusiastic voters turn out—and whether economic dissatisfaction outweighs concerns among swing voters about the party’s direction.