A midterm redistricting push meant to give Republicans a buffer against the usual losses for a president’s party has left the GOP pouring millions into districts that were supposed to be easier wins. North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is a prime example. The Republican-controlled state legislature redrew the district late last year, and the new boundaries would have given Donald Trump an 11-point victory there in 2024. Yet the race between Republican Laurie Buckhout and Democratic Rep. Don Davis is now rated a toss-up. More than $42 million has been spent on advertising in the race from Sept. 1 through Election Day, according to an analysis of AdImpact data. Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who lost to Davis two years ago, made the case for the new district’s Republican lean at a rally with Trump in Greenville on Oct. 20. “There are more of us,” she said, urging supporters to turn out. Trump told the crowd that House Speaker Mike Johnson had asked him to call attention to the close races. “They’re going to have close races,” Trump said. Davis, campaigning at an early-voting site in Swansboro, said the latest map is the third he has faced in as many runs. His home county was removed from the district, while all or part of six new counties were added. The changing boundaries have even led some voters to tell Davis he is not their representative. Still, Davis has built a reputation as a strong local campaigner. “Don Davis has always been a tough out,” said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina political consultant. Davis has focused on household costs and the pressure high fuel prices are putting on farmers, truckers and fishermen, saying for some residents the issue is “survivability.” The North Carolina contest is part of a broader pattern. Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, said Republicans had gained an advantage in 15 congressional districts nationwide through redistricting, but some races intended to be easy victories were still competitive close to Election Day. Two redrawn Florida districts were nearing a combined $90 million in advertising, while several Texas districts with expected Republican advantages had moved toward Democrats. A Republican strategist involved in midterm races argued that redistricting creates new battlegrounds but does not guarantee results. The stakes are substantial: instead of relying on more favorable lines, campaigns in these districts are competing for voters—and spending heavily to do it. Davis’s contest underscores the limits of trying to settle political outcomes with a map. As Jackson put it, the North Carolina redraw could prove a “dummymander” rather than a gerrymander.