Politics
Brazil’s Oct. 25 runoff puts crime and state spending at center of tight race
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro head into a close runoff, with security, the size of government and a pledge to pardon Bolsonaro’s jailed father among the defining issues. Polls suggest the contest remains unsettled, with some voters still open to switching sides.
RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s presidential election reaches a runoff Sunday, Oct. 25, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro in a contest shaped by public safety, economic policy and the future of the Bolsonaro family’s influence on the right.
Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the Oct. 4 first round and leads in several polls, though some recent surveys show the gap narrowing. The race is close enough that turnout and last-minute decisions by voters could prove decisive. A poll released Wednesday found 10% of voters were still considering a change of choice.
The 45-year-old senator has promised to reduce the size of Brazil’s government to spur economic growth and to crack down aggressively on organized crime. Crime ranks among voters’ top concerns. “Security is awful,” said Marli Alves, a 63-year-old prison worker in Rio de Janeiro who supports Bolsonaro, describing robberies at public events.
Lula challenged Bolsonaro’s economic approach during a televised debate, questioning whether Argentina’s austerity program under President Javier Milei should serve as a model. The debate highlighted a central choice for voters: Bolsonaro’s pledge to shrink the state versus Lula’s defense of his governing record and social priorities.
Bolsonaro has also promised to pardon his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence for plotting to overturn the 2022 election result. Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in that election. The elder Bolsonaro’s conviction and imprisonment have become a defining backdrop to his son’s campaign.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive term and has said this will be his final presidential campaign. He first took office in 2003, but lost support among many voters in the 2010s amid a corruption scandal and imprisonment. His convictions were later annulled on procedural grounds.
The campaign has drawn large crowds in major cities. A Flávio Bolsonaro rally on São Paulo’s Paulista Avenue drew tens of thousands, while Lula supporters gathered in Rio de Janeiro and other cities. Bolsonaro’s victory would extend his family’s political reach and strengthen a rightward movement that has gained ground in parts of Latin America.
Lula’s campaign has accused Meta of unfairly restricting his political content, a claim the company denies. Meta acknowledged technical problems in handling election-related content in Brazil, but said it does not suppress content to disadvantage either side or give preferential treatment.
With the vote days away, Brazil’s next president will inherit a country sharply divided over public security, government’s role in the economy and the consequences of the 2022 election crisis.